The madness begins again as the Sweet 16 begins today. The first two rounds provided numerous upsets, including #15 Princeton over #2 Arizona, #13 Furman over #4 Virginia, and #16 FDU over #1 Purdue.
As the Tournament continues, the lines get tighter and sharper, so finding edges against the spread may be challenging. That’s where player props come into play. Oddsmakers are focused on getting the correct number out there each game, and there could be tremendous value on player props from here on out.
Most player props are over/under bets on an individual player’s stats. Examples of basketball player prop bets include over/under bets on points, assists, rebounds, three-pointers made, blocks, or steals.
Another increasingly popular prop bet is “First to 15 Points.” The game is in the name: bet on which team will score 15 points first. Bookmakers will set odds for either side in this race to 15 based on their matchup, and bettors get to enjoy a thrilling back-and-forth bet that usually pays out in the first 10 minutes of the game.
Tips for Finding the Best Prop Bets
Shopping For the Best Lines and Odds
The average sports bettor only uses one sportsbook. Try to use at least three different sportsbooks so you can shop for the best lines. Research some of the March Madness betting websites, and you will often get lines at least a half-point better than the average line.
Think of it as buying a car; you usually only buy the first car you see. Usually, you would visit 2-3 dealerships to find the best price. To be profitable in betting on sports, you must do the same, shop for the best price or odds.
Matchups
The first thing you want to do when finding the best player props is to analyze as much information as you can regarding their matchup.
Look at offensive and defensive matchups. For example, if you Like Player A points total over and they are playing a top 10 defense, that may not be a smart bet. Or you may need to dive in deeper. How does Player A score the majority of his points? If he is more of a 3-point shooter and the defense allows a higher 3pt% than the league average, there may be value on the over.
Historical Trends
Also, when looking at player props, you must look at their game log and their historical trends. One of the best tools for historical trends and hot rates is props.cash.
For example, let’s look at Houston’s guard Jamal Shead. His points total is 14 points. At first glance, you like the over.
Looking at his historical trends, he has only gone over 14 points four times (40%) over his last ten games and has missed this number in back-to-back games, scoring only 10 points and 13 points in those games.
Now you may lean toward betting his under; the next step is to look at his matchup. See how well the Miami Hurricanes are on the defensive side of the ball and see if that correlates with taking the under.
Advice for Betting on Prop Bets
Whether you are betting the spread, money line, or playing player props, it is essential to under the importance of bankroll management.
Bankroll Management
Bankroll management might be crucial in becoming a successful sports bettor. Poor money management is the number one reason people go broke or end up in debt, whether in everyday life or when trying to win long-term sports betting.
You want to stay consistent with how much you bet on each play. Ideally, you should bet 1% to 5% of your bankroll on each bet. Typically 3% is a good starting point. For example, if your starting bankroll is $1000, you should bet $30 on each bet.
Using this system will help you ride out the ups and downs of sports betting and will help you sustain your bankroll through tough losing streaks. This takes discipline because many people like to chase their losses and double down on the next game to help recover their losses earlier in the day.
Chasing your losses is another bettingmis mistake. Just because you lost a bet or had a losing day does not mean you have to chase your losses by betting on the late-night game. If it’s easier to create a game plan before all the games start, do that. Write down the games or props you like for that day and stick with them, whether they win or lose.
Sweet 16 Player Props
Markquis Nowell under 18.5 points – Kansas State
Despite Nowell coming off a 27-point performance in Kansas State’s win over Kentucky, he has only cleared this number four times over his last 10 games. 10 of his 27 points against Kentucky came at the free-throw line, which is no surprise as Kentucky ranks almost dead last in sending opposing players to the foul line. Michigan State sends their opposition to the free-throw lines 3.4% less often than the league average, which is terrible news for Nowell.
Brandon Miller over 17.5 points – Alabama
Brandom Miller is not only the best player left in the Tournament, but he may be the best player in the country.
Miller is averaging 19.1 PPG this season and has topped this number in eight of his last ten and four of his previous five games. The only game he did not reach was because he left at halftime with an injury.
Alabama’s matchup may be more challenging this weekend as they face a San Diego State team that ranks 5th in adjusted defensive efficiency. Despite playing a top defensive team, I still like the over. In Alabama’s last ten games, they have faced two teams that rank inside the top 15 in adjusted defensive efficiency, and he scored 24 and 18 points in those two games.
As a new bettor, feel free to bet only on some games. Do your research and pick a select few and stick to it. You should only risk 3%-5% of your bankroll on each game. Proper bankroll management will help throw the highs and lows of betting on sports.
Remember, March Madness is meant to be fun, have fun with your bets and brackets but remember to bet responsibly.
